Kenneth Blackwell The latest FOX News/Rasmussen Reports battleground poll presents a plausible scenario for a narrow John McCain victory. While most pundits have written McCain’s political obituary, he is extremely competitive in Florida (McCain leads 50 percent to 49 percent), North Carolina (McCain leads 50 percent to 49 percent), Missouri (tied at 49 percent) and Ohio (tied at 49 percent). Factor in Monday’s Mason-Dixon Virginia numbers (Obama leads 47 percent to 44 percent) and this election is far from over. The other wild card is the upset brewing in Pennsylvania. The McCain campaign actually thinks it will win that state, giving them a lifesaving electoral firewall.
Looking at the battleground states a day before the election, I see McCain winning Florida, North, Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania; and losing Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. If that happens, McCain will squeak out 273 electoral votes and win.
— Ken Blackwell, a former Ohio secretary of state, is a senior fellow at the American Civil Rights Union. He has also served as an undersecretary at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Rob Long To be succinct, I would say this about the election: Build an ark.
— Rob Long's column, The Long View, appears in National Review. | Elizabeth Crum Like everyone who is willing to be honest about it, I have no earthly idea what is going to happen today in the presidential election so I’m going with the most interesting, historically significant (and actually plausible) outcome I can imagine:
Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, and Pennysylvania go to The One; New Hampshire, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida go to McCain; and the electoral college is tied at 269. Ten thousand attorneys descend upon these eleven toss up states like one of the great plagues of Egypt. Obama wins because he has more money and more lawyers to defend the fraudulent votes cast by dead people and out-of-staters.
In Nevada, Democrat Dina Titus will beat John Porter in our Distict 3 congressional race. Many feel that Porter deserves his loss: He has not been a reliable conservative in D.C. and ran a terrible campaign.
The most interesting and controversial Nevada initiative — to raise our room tax by as much as three percent to fund public education — will pass, even though economic analysts have warned this will harm our already struggling tourism industry. And our educational system will no doubt continue to be ranked among the worst in the nation due to our Board of Education’s general hostility to fiscal responsibility, reform, and charter schools. John J. Miller Barack Obama will win the presidential election. He will carry all of the 2004 blue states, including Pennsylvania, and also flip Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, and Virginia. This would give Obama 286 electoral votes, to 252 for John McCain. | John J. Pitney Jr. As I explained Monday, one can think of a scenario in which McCain loses the popular vote but barely wins the electoral vote. But that outcome is just a remote possibility. The most likely result is that Obama wins 54 percent of the two-party popular vote to McCain’s 46. Obama wins the electoral vote 353-185, carrying the swing states of Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.
In the Senate, Democrats pick up seven seats: Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and Virginia. In the House, Democrats gain 30 seats.
This scenario assumes that current polls are roughly accurate. But suppose they understate Obama’s support and the effectiveness of his GOTV operation. In that case, Obama wins 58-42 in the popular vote. He carries all the swing states above, plus Missouri, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, Arizona, West Virginia, and Arkansas. Here he wins the electoral vote 417-121. Democrats post additional Senate gains in Georgia and Minnesota, for a nine-vote pickup and a 60-vote total.
If the latter scenario pans out, here is a cinematic depiction of how we conservatives will view election-night coverage. — John J. Pitney, Jr. is the Roy P. Crocker Professor of American Politics at Claremont McKenna College. More At NRO |